Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
