Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
